The iPhone 6 may not appear until September is almost over. At least, that's the latest prognostication from Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster.
Following Apple's usual pattern, the next iPhone is almost certain to be announced and then roll out to consumers sometime in September. When exactly in September that will happen is still a mystery. The earlier in the month that Apple can launch the iPhone 6, the higher the percentage of iPhone sales that the company can apply to its September quarter financial results. But an early release may not happen, according to an investors note released by Munster on Wednesday.
On Tuesday, Apple reported healthy fiscal third-quarter (calendar second quarter) profits of $7.75 billion. But revenue was lower than analysts had anticipated. Further, iPhone sales clocked in at 35.2 million units, not quite hitting the average analyst forecast of 35.9 million units. Apple also said it expects revenue for the current quarter to range from $37 billion to $40 billion, slightly less than the $40.44 billion projected by analysts.
So given all that, why does Munster now believe the iPhone will arrive later to the party in September? Well, it's a bit complicated, but here goes...
Given Apple's revenue projections for the current quarter, Munster sees sales of 38 million iPhones from July through September. But assuming a late September launch for the iPhone 6, the analyst has pushed back a total of 16 million new iPhone 6 units from his prior estimate for an earlier launch. That assumes year-over-year iPhone unit growth of 9 percent, not taking into account any new models.
"We reach 16 million iPhone 6 units by assuming that Apple launches both a 4.7-inch and 5.5-inch iPhone 6 leading to a 14 million unit 3-day launch weekend (up 55 percent year-over-year vs 9 million for theiPhone 5S/5C launch)," Munster said. "For the launch weekend, we note the average y/y launch weekend growth for the past 5 iPhone launches averaged 62 percent, and the last two body-style upgrades averaged 48 percent y/y growth. We assume Apple sells another 2 million units in the remaining 2 days in the September quarter for a total of 16 million iPhone 6 units."
Got all that? Whatever factors fit into Munster's forecast, a later iPhone launch means fewer units sold would be applied to the September quarter, which could partly explain why Apple believes the overall revenues will be lower this quarter than analysts had anticipated.
In another investors note released late Tuesday, Munster came up with a specific release date for the next-generation iPhone.
"We believe the guide suggests a launch on the last Friday of September (9/26) vs. our prior thinking of a 9/19 launch," the analyst forecast. "This means Apple will only benefit from 5 days of iPhone 6 sales vs. 12 in our prior expectation."
Munster also said he believes the much-rumored 5.5-inch iPhone will cannibalize sales of the iPad Mini. But Apple may not mind. Even if the larger-screened phone cannibalizes as many as 4 million iPad Mini units, Apple would still see an additional $1.2 billion in overall sales, according to the analyst.
Finally, Munster does expect Apple to introduce an iWatch and a possible mobile payments platform. But he concedes that his expectations for an Apple television set are waning and now sees it as more of a long-term product.
Cortana will play a critical role in Microsoft and Windows Phone's future.James Martin/CNET
NEW YORK -- The woman behind the counter at the American embassy in Istanbul eyed Sogol Malekzadeh skeptically.
"Why are you here?" the immigration official asked. "You [already] know my answer."
It was Malekzadeh's first attempt applying for a cultural visa to the US, a process akin to winning the lottery. But Malekzadeh was determined -- and ready with her pitch. She had lugged in her entire collection of mixed media artwork -- sculptures, paintings and digital work -- and shoved it through the small window at the counter. "I'm an artist, and I think artists are without borders," she argued.
After eying her work, which was deemed controversial enough that Malekzadeh would be jailed if it were publicly displayed her hometown of Tehran, Iran, the official granted her the visa.
Malekzadeh, a native of Tehran, Iran, arrived in the US in 2000 and soon found work as a phone software designer for Motorola. For the past five years, though, she's played a key role as a designer for Microsoft, where she has taken the lead role in crafting the personality for Cortana, the virtual assistant found on Windows Phone devices. Her goal has been to create an emotional connection between Cortana and users. While Apple's Siri voice assistant is even-toned and occasionally cheeky, Cortana is sharp-witted and proactive -- designed in theory to anticipate your needs.
Sogol Malekzadeh lead the team that crafted Cortana's personality.Sarah Tew/CNETCortana plays a vital role to the long-term success of Windows Phone. The fledgling mobile operating system by Microsoft still lags far behind Google'sAndroid and Apple's iOS software. Microsoft hopes Cortana's ability to answer questions and predict your needs, combined with the Cortana name -- she also serves as the artificial intelligent sidekick to the Master Chief, the lead character of the Halo sci-fi shooter franchises -- will help Microsoft's platform stand apart from rivals.
"It's a very critical component to Windows Phone," said Charles Golvin, an analyst for Abelian Research.
Microsoft has elevated mobile to a top priority in its recent transformation under CEO Satya Nadella -- a transition that also included the announcement last week that the company was cutting 18,000 jobs over the next year to streamline its operations.
While Microsoft may tout Cortana's specialness/appeal, she isn't the only virtual assistant around. Siri was the highlight feature of Apple's iPhone 4S when it debuted in 2011. Google, meanwhile, offers its voice-activated Google Now, which powers not only its smartphones, but its Android Wear smartwatch platform and Google Glass smart eyewear as well. Even BlackBerry plans to launch its own BlackBerry Assistant with its next software update, which has yet to receive a launch date.
(To see how Siri, Google Now, and Cortana stack up, check out CNET editor Jessica Dolcourt's look at the three rival services. The verdict: Cortana stacks up well, but it's really too early to tell. )
Some Windows Phone users tried out Cortana for the first time after Microsoft released its "Cyan" software update last week, which includes the virtual assistant. The new software is being rolled out over the next few weeks, with the timing depending on the device and wireless service.
For Malekzadeh and the Cortana team, it was key that when people first interacted with the voice assistant, it would come off as friendly and helpful, but not so overly human it might be a turn-off. "We recognize she's an AI, and she's self-aware, but she's not pretending to be human," Malekzadeh said. "If you pass that line, then things start to get creepy."
An artistic background
I was in Manhattan's Chelsea district as I sat down with Malekzadeh last month after a Microsoft panel discussion on -- fittingly -- how technology can be more human.
With her short, frizzy blonde hair and dressed in a long black tunic, rolled-up grey jeans, and a high-heeled version of what can only be described as gladiator sandals, Malekzadeh comes off as punk. But she exudes a motherly vibe.
While she was supposed to talk about Cortana, she was more than willing to chat about how she came to the US and her start as a controversial artist.
Her desire to leave Tehran (she hasn't been back yet) came as her work was gaining prominence abroad. Her portfolio contained works depicting intimate scenes between men and women, a theme considered taboo in Iran. Her final thesis at the Azad and Tehran University was held in private. "My professor didn't want to get me in trouble," she recalled.
As there isn't an American embassy in Iran, Malekzadeh made her way to the one in Turkey, where she argued for a cultural visa. She had reason to come to the US, having received an invitation from the University of Chicago to display her work. She was only able to bring some of her work abroad, since all artwork -- even her controversial ones -- are considered national treasures.
After arriving in the US, she attended the Illinois Institute of Art. She stayed local after graduating and joined Motorola in 2004, working on the user interface of its iconic flip phone, the ultra-thin Razr. A number of lesser-known handsets followed.
Microsoft's panel on tech becoming more human included (from left) Steve Clayton, Microsoft's chief storyteller, Albert Shum, partner director of user experience design, Malekzadeh, and Scott Evens, group program manager for the Kinect.Sarah Tew/CNET
"At that time, we were excited about gradients and round corners," she said.
In 2009, she got a call from a friend who worked at Microsoft looking to recruit her. She was reluctant. Microsoft, after all, didn't have the best reputation at the time, and she was unsure about the company's design chops. Microsoft was at that time reliant on Windows Mobile, an older, clunky operating system that fared poorly against the newer and slicker iOS and Android platforms.
But she changed her mind after meeting Albert Shum, now a director for user experience design and Malekzadeh's boss. He impressed her with the company's new direction and the resources that would be available to her. "What was fascinating, if I joined Microsoft, I could create a platform that would enable other designers to be more creative," she said.
After bouncing around the company, she joined up with a fledgling team aiming to create a new virtual assistant.
Building blocks of trust
Development on Cortana lasted two years, with early work starting in 2012. One of the first steps Malekzadeh's team took in developing the concept for Cortana's personality was to visit actual human personal assistants to figure out how they operate.
It was from those conversations with real people that Microsoft focused on Cortana's predictive capabilities. Pulling up the Cortana app brings up relevant headlines and weather information. She can read emails that contain references to a flight and ask whether she should track it for you. The interactions start with such little things, and gradually expand as users engage more with Cortana. "Those are the building blocks of trust," Malekzadeh said.
Marcus Ash, the group program manager who helped coordinate Malekzadeh and other teams working on Cortana's development, said the virtual assistant got better the more people interacted with it. So the goal was to get people comfortable using Cortana -- and to keep using her. "If you don't tell us natural language phrases, we can't train the system," Ash said in an interview in April. "If we can't train the system, then we don't understand natural language phrases."
Malekzadeh compared it to a relationship with a real personal assistant. Early on, you're more likely to give the assistant a few menial tasks until you feel comfortable enough to let them handle your laundry or even manage your finances.
With Cortana, you can not only ask about movie times, but also get movie recommendations, which she will spit out based on your viewing history. She can remind you to pick up milk when you're at a grocery store and ask to track a flight based on information from your email.
Microsoft hopes Cortana's expanded capabilities will help it avoid the fate that has befallen Siri, which many argue has been relegated to a little-used gimmick, despite Apple's efforts to improve its capabilities. "Siri was cool for five minutes," said Maribel Lopez, an analyst at Lopez Research. "It could do a couple of things, then it abysmally failed."
Lopez sees Cortana eventually influencing the rest of Microsoft's products and services, moving beyond PCs and tablets and into wearable devices and other new gadgets and services.
But Microsoft isn't the only one with lofty ambitions. "If Microsoft can't get it right, then none of its services will be meaningful to people," Lopez said. "If Google gets it right first, it'll have an extraordinary position in the market."
'Tell me a joke'
Getting people to trust and use Cortana meant giving the virtual assistant that slightly human touch. "You can't make this faceless thing and expect people to talk to it," Ash said.
And if Microsoft was going to use the Cortana from Halo fame, it was going to go all in. Throughout most of 2013, Microsoft worked with 343 Industries, the developer behind the new Halo games, and hired a creative team with experience in creative and science fiction to help write a script.
The Cortana from the Halo games.343 Industries
It also meant hiring the same voice actress, Jen Taylor, to voice Cortana, although she can only be heard by Windows Phone users during pre-recorded responses and messages. From any text-to-talk messages, Microsoft used another voice actress because Taylor didn't have the time to record every single response, Ash said.
She is best heard in "Chit Chat" phrases, or the witty responses proferred when asked a direct question. You can ask her to tell a joke (Why did the hipster burn his mouth on his coffee? Because he drank it before it was cool.), or get her thoughts on Apple's soon-to-be built doughnut-shaped campus: "Their new headquarters looks kind of like a Halo. I'm into it."
The Windows Phone version of Cortana is a simpler ring.James Martin/CNETRegarding former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, Cortana says "You could power Cleveland with that guy's energy!"
She's also a fan of 2013 dubstep hit, "The Fox." (Just ask Cortana what the fox says.)
"The jokes are pretty good," Malekzadeh said, adding that Chit Chat was something the team wanted to invest in early on.
That's because it was important she sound human. Otherwise, people would drop the natural language and revert back to basic search phrase. More critically, the natural language and quick responses help create that emotional bond between Cortana and the user, which was a primary goal for Malekzadeh. "Similar to when you create a piece of art, you like your audience to connect with you through that lens, in their own unique way."
Why is the Chromebook doing so well in the US commercial channel? In a word, schools.
"In [those] channels they appear to be primarily an education product," NPD analyst Stephen Baker, said in response to an email query.
Chromebooks are also gaining outside of education. "They are doing very well at retail [too]. They represent about 5 percent to 7 percent of retail notebook sales (about 25 percent of all under $300 ASP retail notebook sales)," Baker said in an email message.
The NPD report goes on to say that the Chrome OS "has become a legitimate third platform," challenging both Windows and Mac OS X (and iOS).
But the Windows market is the main target because it's the biggest with the most to lose. Why? Chromebooks offer a traditional Windows clamshell design at a very low price -- often below many competing Windows laptops. And they're offered by the very same companies -- HP, Dell, Acer -- that sell Windows laptops.
Don't think Microsoft is just a little bit concerned? Think again. Dell, a major purveyor of Windows laptops, said this week that it had to halt sales of its Chromebook because it couldn't meet demand.
Here's what Dell said to CNET in a statement: "Due to strong demand, the Dell Chromebook 11 is currently not available for order on Dell.com. It continues to be available for our Education customers and can be ordered through their sales representative. We will offer it for sale again on Dell.com as soon as possible."
So, Microsoft is worried. Worried enough to dedicate a Web page to explainingwhy you should opt for an inexpensive Windows laptop over a Chromebook.
To wit:
"A Windows laptop is for...getting things done with Microsoft Office, connecting to workplace networks, using rich tools to edit your photos and videos online and offline, calling your friend in Paris with Skype... organizing your files on your laptop for easy access even when you're offline, playing Halo, working both online and offline, using iTunes and Photoshop, and countless other things you get only with a full-powered PC."
And price, as usual, is very important. Chromebooks start at $199. Microsoft responded to that challenge this week.
Microsoft COO Kevin Turner addressed this issue at the company's Worldwide Partner Conference, showing off Stream, a $199 HP laptop running Windows 8.1 that will be available this holiday season to challenge the Chromebook. Other products will likely follow.
China's Xiaomi delivers a metallic smartphone for very little cash
The GoodXiaomi's flagship phone has a beautiful aluminum-magnesium chassis, solid build quality, powerful performance, and a great UI for a relatively low price.
The Bad The smartphone lacks LTE connectivity, and a microSD card slot means you'll only ever have 16GB of onboard storage.
The Bottom LineXiaomi's Mi 3 is a showcase of how Chinese phonemakers can create quality hardware without breaking the bank. If you don't need 4G LTE, and you can get hold of it, this is one of the best smartphones you can buy in its price range.
Xiaomi isn't quite a household name outside of China yet, but that's just for what Hugo Barra, former Googler and now Xiaomi's global VP, is aiming. And if the Xiaomi Mi 3 is any indication of the price and build quality of the company's future phones, Xiaomi's competitors should start paying attention.
Announced last year, the Mi 3 is quite the looker -- it comes with an aluminum-magnesium chassis and has a beautiful face with a 5-inch full-HD display covered in Corning Gorilla Glass 3. It's hard to deny the value that this phone represents -- it costs just $270 (£160, AU$290) off-contract -- and once you get your hands on one, you'll be impressed with the build quality and feel.
Currently it's widely available in China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Singapore only, but the 3G phone will work globally if you can import one. Online retailers in the UK do stock the phone, but at a premium -- you'll be lucky to find it for less than £220. In the United States, expect to pay at least $375 from online retailers.
Without 4G LTE support, however, the Mi 3 isn't meant to go head-to-head with this year's flagship smartphones from Chinese brands such as OnePlus or Oppo -- instead it is a great alternative if you only need 3G and don't want to renew your contract or pay through the roof for a powerful new phone. Bear in mind, though, the Mi 3 is almost a year old, and a new, refreshed model is likely around the corner.
Design
Since the first Mi Phone released three years ago, Xiaomi has gained a reputation for making good-quality Android devices, and the Mi 3 is no exception. I'm impressed with how great it looks and its build quality. The phone really feels like the 5-inch Android phone Apple would make -- if Apple made 5-inch Android phones.
Aloysius Low/CNET
Compared with other devices from China that tend to have plastic builds, the Xiaomi Mi 3 stands out. It looks like an expensive phone -- and it feels like one. The designers paid attention to the details of the construction, which you can see easily from the machined speaker holes to the seamless joining of the plastic but metallic-looking body and glass front.
There has been much talk of how Xiaomi is trying to copy Apple's approach to industrial design, but the result speaks for itself. I would argue the Mi 3 also rather resembles something from Nokia at its best.
Weighing just 145g (5.2 ounces), you'd expect the phone to be heavier given its plastic body. The Mi 3 is light in your hand, however, and comfortable to grip.
Located at the bottom are the aforementioned speaker holes, as well as a Micro-USB port. On the right side, you'll find the conveniently placed power button, with the volume rockers a little higher up. At the top are the speaker jack and the SIM-card slot. The Mi 3 takes a big, old-fashioned SIM card, since it comes from China (where such cards are still used), so you'll need an adapter if you're switching from a micro- or nano-SIM.
Aloysius Low/CNET
When powered off, the display is a uniform sheet of glass, with the Xiaomi logo at the top left corner. When you do turn on the screen, however, you'll find the touch-sensitive menu buttons in their usual place below the screen. Packing 1,920x1,080 pixels, the Mi 3's screen is capable of handling full-HD video.
Internally, the phone packs a 2.3GHz quad-core Qualcomm Snapdragon 80 processor, 2GB of RAM, and 16GB of onboard storage. The phone has no microSD card slot, and while there's a 64GB version of the phone available, it's not sold outside of China. Connectivity-wise, the smartphone packs all you need to connect to any 3G GSM network around the world, but no 4G LTE. It does have NFC, Bluetooth, and Wi-Fi.
Aloysius Low/CNET
Finally on the rear, you'll find the 13-megapixel camera as well as a dual-LED flash. Xiaomi's attention to detail is also present here: you'll find that instead of making the camera hole a circle like most other smartphones, the company took time to make it square -- just a cool piece of design.
Software and features
MIUI is a very pretty UI with plenty of features.Screenshot by Aloysius Low/CNET
One of the biggest draws of Xiaomi's Mi 3 is that it runs the company's own version of Android, called MIUI. You can actually download this and install it on your own phone, but Xiaomi's devices all come running this out of the box. As you can see from my screenshots, it comes with all Google's mobile software, including the Play Store.
I've talked about the MIUI in my earlier review of the budget Redmi, but here's a quick recap on the notable features of the OS.
First up is themes -- MIUI has a powerful theming function capable of changing the look of the UI as well as add custom effects. Its Ferrari theme plays a loud engine roar when you unlock the phone, for example, as well as changing the colors of the UI to a bright metallic red.
MIUI also makes it easy for you to move apps around, you can do a pinch-out action to show the home screens, flick an app downward to collect them, swipe over to a new screen and move all the collected apps there. If you're just moving one app, you can hold on the app with your finger, but instead of dragging it to the edge of the display as you would do in iOS or most versions of Android, you can use another finger to swipe the screen. It's a simple but great tweak I've not seen anywhere else.
Xiaomi has left out the Redmi's Lite Mode, however, which basically supersizes icons and makes the phone more user-friendly for people with visual impairments or who aren't so tech-savvy. The Mi 3, then, isn't a phone you'd buy an elderly relative.
There are also built-in security features such as a blocklist to filter annoying spam numbers, a data monitoring tool that allows you to set which apps are allowed to use mobile data or just Wi-Fi, and a virus scanner from Tencent.
The security app is the hub for accessing data-monitoring features and the virus scanner.Screenshot by Aloysius Low/CNET
Xiaomi claims to have made Android much better, and given its large feature scope and tweaks, it's easy to agree. If you're really savvy and want to try MIUI out before you buy a Xiaomi phone, the ROM is available for download for plenty of devices, though you'll need to root and unlock your device first.
Xiaomi's native apps have a distinct design aesthetic.Screenshot by Aloysius Low/CNET
Camera
The Xiaomi Mi 3 has a 13-megapixel camera, similar in pixel count to those found in other flagship phones. The image quality is good, and the shutter is rather snappy. The phone keeps it simple -- there aren't any special tricks such as Asus' low-light mode, but you do get the standard panorama, HDR, and filters.
Outdoor test shot (click to enlarge).Aloysius Low/CNET
Indoor test shot (click to enlarge).Aloysius Low/CNET
Outdoor test shot (click to enlarge). It's a pretty good image: you can even make out a plane in the far left of the shot.Aloysius Low/CNET
Performance
Powered by last year's Snapdragon 800 quad-core processor, the phone is responsive and I never noticed it lagging. The phone's UI is also very stable, and I didn't encounter any crashes during my tests. The Mi 3 hit 21,164 in the Quadrant benchmarks, and scored 897.163 MFLOPs over 0.19 second in the Linpack multi-thread test. That's a little slower than the superb OnePlus One, but not disastrously so.
Call quality
Phone calls were crisp and clear, and I had no issues with the phone. Speaker volume is also adequate, but because it's located at the bottom, you will have to cup your hand to direct the audio towards your ears when watching video.
Battery life
Packing an embedded 3,050mAh battery, the phone easily lasted more more than a day of moderate use. The phone also comes with various different power modes, so you can select the battery saving option to stretch the uptime further.
Conclusion
Xiaomi has crafted a beautiful, classy device in the Mi 3, and while it may be a little dated, the phone is still one of the better ones you can get today. If you need a huge amount of storage for songs and videos, however, 16GB with no microSD slot likely won't be enough for you.
That said, it's hard to deny how much value Xiaomi has packed into this phone. Compare it to the $349/£299/AU$399 Google Nexus 5, which has the same amount of storage, but a much less pleasing plastic chassis. Against the similarly priced Moto G, the Xiaomi holds up particularly well, with a better processor, camera and screen.
Like many other Chinese-made handsets, the Mi 3 is a top-notch Android phone that easily justifies what you pay for it...and offers a lot more besides.
Aloysius Low/CNET
In India, this phone is currently available only on Flipkart.
